France’s departure from Niger, following the withdrawal of its troops from Mali and Burkina Faso, marks the end of a decade-long counterterrorism strategy in the Sahel, creating an uncertain landscape in which military regimes face off against jihadist groups. The last of France’s 1,500 soldiers were set to leave Niger after months of tension between Paris and the military rulers in Niamey, signaling a broader failure of Western military interventions in the region.

France had been deeply involved in the Sahel since 2013, initially deploying up to 5,500 troops through Operation Barkhane to combat jihadist insurgencies in cooperation with local forces in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The French mission also received support from European special forces and the U.S., which provided intelligence and logistics. However, a series of coups in the three countries led to demands for the French military to exit, symbolizing the waning influence of Western powers in the region.

With France’s withdrawal, European military cooperation will likely shift towards providing equipment, training, and security assistance, although experts question whether countries like Germany or Italy are willing to engage directly with the current military regimes. The U.S., constrained by legal restrictions against supporting military juntas, may find its presence in Niger less useful without the French, despite maintaining its drone base and personnel.

Russia, particularly through the paramilitary group Wagner, has gained a foothold in the region, notably in Mali, though its influence remains uncertain following the death of its leader, Yevgeni Prigozhin. Despite this, Russia continues to expand its presence, including new agreements with Niger, though the effectiveness of the Wagner model in combating jihadist threats is questionable.

Meanwhile, the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, has committed to mutual defense against jihadist threats, but experts warn that an over-reliance on military responses could repeat the mistakes of the past. There are growing calls for a more balanced approach, including potential negotiations with jihadist groups—a strategy previously dismissed by Western powers but one that may offer hope in reducing violence in the region. However, such dialogue remains a distant prospect as the military regimes focus on consolidating power and addressing the immediate security challenges posed by extremist groups linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.