ASML, the world’s leading supplier of chip-making equipment, cautioned on Wednesday, July 16, 2025, that it may not see growth in 2026 due to uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs.
Chipmakers building factories in the U.S. are delaying investments as they await clarity on tariff impacts, according to CFO Roger Dassen during a media call.
This geopolitical uncertainty has led to a sharp drop in ASML’s shares, falling up to 7.8%—the worst since October—while dragging down peers like ASM, BESI, and Soitec.
Tariff Concerns and Costs
A potential 30% U.S. tariff on European goods could raise the price of ASML’s high-end machines from 250 million to 325 million euros.
Dassen noted that tariffs could compound as parts move multiple times between the Netherlands and the U.S.
He emphasized that customers seek clarity before committing and that ASML plans to pass these costs onto buyers.
CEO Christophe Fouquet highlighted that macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, especially tariffs, are driving this uncertainty, making 2026’s growth outlook unconfirmable despite preparations.
If growth stalls, it would mark the first flat year since 2012 after a decade of gains.
Strong Demand Despite Uncertainty
Despite the warning, ASML reported robust second-quarter net bookings of 5.54 billion euros ($6.4 billion), surpassing the expected 4.44 billion euros.
This 25% beat, driven by strong artificial intelligence demand, included 2.3 billion euros from EUV lithography machines—key for advanced chips in Nvidia GPUs and Apple devices.
Analyst Michael Roeg praised the quarter’s performance, while investor Han Dieperink expressed confidence in future demand.
Chinese demand also remained high at 27% of sales, as chipmakers stock up on older machines amid potential U.S. export curbs.
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