U.S. Action in Venezuela: Moscow’s New Calculus

The global geopolitical landscape changed overnight. United States Special Forces recently captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. This move deprives Russian President Vladimir Putin of a key ally. However, it also creates a new strategic opening for the Kremlin.

As President Donald Trump takes temporary control of Venezuela’s massive oil reserves, Moscow is watching closely. They are evaluating if this signals a global return to defined “spheres of influence.”

Will the “Donroe Doctrine” Define the New Era?

Russian analysts are monitoring the revival of the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine. This policy historically declared the Western Hemisphere as Washington’s exclusive zone. The Trump administration has colloquially rebranded this as the “Donroe Doctrine.”

While the Russian Foreign Ministry officially labels the capture as “modern-day piracy,” a pragmatic trade-off may be forming:

• Total U.S. Dominance: Washington reasserts control over its “backyard.”

• Russian Regional Autonomy: In exchange, Moscow may seek recognition of its power over former Soviet territories like Ukraine.

• Strategic Distraction: Russia and China may benefit if the U.S. becomes preoccupied with managing Venezuela’s internal crisis.

Russian Nationalists Point to Ukraine Failures

The speed of the U.S. operation has sparked internal criticism in Russia. Nationalists are comparing the swift Caracas strike to the prolonged conflict in Ukraine. Imprisoned figure Igor Girkin noted a sharp contrast in military capabilities.

He argued that while the U.S. acted decisively, Russia remains stuck in a “bloody swamp” in Ukraine. This sentiment reflects growing frustration. Hardliners view the loss of Maduro as a major blow to Russian prestige following the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

Impact on Global Oil and “Wild West” Diplomacy

The economic impact centers on “oil clout.” By controlling Venezuelan reserves, the U.S. gains massive leverage over global energy markets. Russian Senator Alexei Pushkov views this as an attempt at total U.S. supremacy.

Pushkov warns that the world is returning to “19th-century imperialism.” He describes the current international arena as a lawless “Wild West.” In this environment, the rule of force is replacing established international law.