A new UN analysis shows countries’ latest promises would reduce emissions by just 10% by 2035. This falls drastically short of the 60% drop needed to keep global warming under 1.5°C.
Most Nations Miss Deadline
Only 64 out of nearly 200 countries submitted updated plans on time. The UN had to estimate the rest using partial data from major polluters like China and the EU.
COP30 Looms in Brazil
With COP30 starting November 10 in the Amazon, pressure mounts. Leaders must boost ambition amid:
- U.S. withdrawal threats
- Geopolitical tensions
- Economic worries
1.5°C Goal in Jeopardy
UN chief Antonio Guterres warned last week: “We will overshoot 1.5°C temporarily.”
This means severe impacts storms, droughts, heatwaves before trying to cool the planet later.
Science Demands Urgency
The IPCC says emissions must fall 60% from 2019 levels by 2035 for a real shot at 1.5°C. Current pledges? Barely one-sixth of that.
UN Climate Head Speaks
Simon Stiell said:
“We’re finally bending emissions down but way too slowly.”
He urged: “Speed up now to pull temperatures back after any overshoot.”
Limited Official Data
The report calls the picture “incomplete.” Many nations delayed submissions. The UN filled gaps with:
- China’s 7–10% cut pledge
- EU’s 66–72% goal (vs. 1990)
- U.S. plan (before Trump’s return)
Paris Agreement Rules
Every five years, countries must submit stronger NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions). 2035 plans were due this year.
Trump Threatens U.S. Exit
President-elect Donald Trump plans to pull the U.S. out of Paris again. He calls climate change a “hoax” and wants to limit climate research.
China and EU Step Up
- China, top emitter, set its first absolute cut target
- EU aims high despite internal debates
Overshoot Risks
If 1.5°C is breached:
- More extreme weather
- Sea level rise
- Ecosystem collapse
Experts say every fraction of a degree matters.
Tech to Reverse Warming?
Post-overshoot cooling may need carbon removal tech not yet ready at scale.
COP30: Make or Break?
Brazil hosts talks to:
- Push stronger NDCs
- Secure finance for poor nations
- Build trust amid divisions
Final Warning
Stiell:
“We’re in the race but must run faster every year to save a livable planet.”
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