Despite the strained diplomatic relations between Benin and Niger, Benin is projected to benefit from transit duties and tax revenues as Nigerien oil begins to flow through the Sèmè Kraké platform. The pipeline, which stretches 1,980 km and connects Niger’s Agadem oil fields to the port of Sèmè in Benin, promises economic gains for both nations. It is expected to create around 2,000 jobs in Benin and transform Niger into a major oil producer in the region.

The project, which began in September 2019 with a budget exceeding $5 billion, has experienced several delays. The pipeline was anticipated to produce 90,000 barrels per day (bpd) upon completion, significantly boosting Niger’s oil output. Currently, Niger pumps around 20,000 bpd, mostly from the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) in the Agadem Rift Basin. With the new pipeline, Niger’s production is expected to rise to 110,000 bpd, and the country aims to reach 200,000 bpd by 2026.

However, the optimism surrounding the project was shaken following the July 2023 coup that ousted Niger’s democratically elected president, Mohamed Bazoum. In response, Benin, as a member of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), enforced sanctions and closed its borders with Niger. Since then, President Patrice Talon has softened his stance and reopened the border for goods transiting through Benin to Niger in December 2023, hoping to restore relations.

Despite Talon’s efforts, Niger’s military junta, officially called the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP), led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani, has not shown signs of seeking rapprochement with Benin. Instead, Niger has strengthened its alliances with neighboring countries Burkina Faso and Mali, with plans to form a joint confederation.

The increased oil production through the Sèmè Kraké platform offers significant economic opportunities for Niger and Benin, with Niger believed to have reserves of up to a billion barrels of crude oil according to the African Petroleum Producers’ Organization. However, the long-term success of the project hinges on stabilizing diplomatic relations and fostering cooperation between the two nations.