Tensions Loom Over Cote d’Ivoire’s 2025 Presidential Election

On October 25, 2025, voters in Cote d’Ivoire will head to the polls in a high-stakes presidential election shaped by past controversies and ongoing political instability. A major point of contention remains the potential candidacy of President Alassane Ouattara, who has governed since 2010 and is currently serving a controversial third term, despite constitutional limits restricting presidents to two terms. The Independent Electoral Commission (CEI), led by Ibrahim Coulibaly-Kuibiert, faces immense pressure to ensure a fair and transparent electoral process amid growing public distrust.

A History of Electoral Turmoil

Cote d’Ivoire’s recent electoral history has been fraught with conflict. The 2010 presidential election saw Ouattara challenge incumbent Laurent Gbagbo in a disputed contest that led to a violent post-election crisis, leaving over 3,000 people dead. A military intervention resulted in Gbagbo’s arrest and a twenty-year sentence by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity. Subsequent elections have also been marred by tensions, with the opposition boycotting the 2015 vote and the 2020 election witnessing widespread unrest following the death of ruling party candidate Amadou Gon Coulibaly, which led Ouattara to seek a controversial third term.

A Fragmented Opposition and a Divided Electorate

While the 2010 election featured fourteen candidates, the 2025 race is expected to have fewer contenders. However, this does not mean a clearer political landscape. Ouattara remains the ruling party’s preferred candidate, yet opposition figures strongly contest his legitimacy. Among them is former president Laurent Gbagbo, who, despite being acquitted by the ICC and pardoned by Ouattara, remains ineligible to run due to unresolved legal issues. Charles Blé Goudé, another key figure in Gbagbo’s camp, also faces similar restrictions.

Meanwhile, former First Lady Simone Ehivet Gbagbo is running under the Mouvement des Générations Capables (MGC), while Pascal Affi N’Guessan of the Front Populaire Ivoirien (FPI) has focused his campaign on governance and economic recovery. The fractured opposition raises concerns that multiple left-leaning candidates could weaken the challenge against Ouattara’s party, the Rassemblement des Houphouëtistes pour la Démocratie et la Paix (RHDP).

The center-right Parti Démocratique de Côte d’Ivoire – Rassemblement Démocratique Africain (PDCI-RDA) also faces internal divisions. Former Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam has been nominated as the party’s candidate, but influential member Jean-Louis Billon has rejected the decision, launching his own campaign.

Geopolitical Influence and the Rise of Pan-Africanism

As Cote d’Ivoire prepares for a crucial election, shifting regional dynamics could play a major role. Across West Africa, countries are increasingly rejecting foreign influence. The withdrawal of French troops from Port-Bouët in Cote d’Ivoire follows similar exits from Senegal and Chad. Meanwhile, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali, has distanced itself from traditional Western partners, embracing Pan-African sovereignty.

The AES, formed in 2023, has positioned itself as a counterweight to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The bloc, rejecting French military presence and international financial institutions, has encouraged economic and security cooperation among African nations. This anti-colonial sentiment could influence Ivorian voters, particularly if opposition figures align themselves with AES rhetoric.

Russia’s Expanding Footprint in Africa

Another key geopolitical player in the election is Russia. Accusations of Russian disinformation campaigns and strategic influence in African elections have raised concerns. According to the Center for Strategic Studies in Africa, Russia has increasingly supported opposition movements critical of ECOWAS and French influence. In Cote d’Ivoire, this speculation centers around Gbagbo’s party, the Parti des Peuples Africains – Côte d’Ivoire (PPA-CI), which has struggled to gain traction domestically but could benefit from Russian backing.

Russia’s Africa Corp (formerly Wagner Group) has already established military and economic ties with AES nations, providing security services and military aid. In January 2025, AES states signed a Telecommunications and Remote Sensing Satellite Agreement with Russia, increasing cooperation. If Gbagbo or another opposition figure were to adopt a pro-AES stance, it could signal a shift in Cote d’Ivoire’s foreign policy.

The Road to October 2025: What Lies Ahead?

With less than a year until the election, Cote d’Ivoire stands at a crossroads. The unresolved debate over Ouattara’s candidacy, the fragmentation of the opposition, and the growing influence of Pan-African and anti-Western movements make this election one of the most significant in the country’s modern history. As political parties finalize their strategies, tensions are likely to rise, and the role of international actors will become even more pronounced.

For the Ivorian electorate, the 2025 vote is more than a choice between candidates—it is a decision that will shape the country’s political and geopolitical future for years to come.