African Airlines Report 5.7% Drop in Air Cargo Demand for February 2025

African airlines recorded a 5.7% year-on-year decline in air cargo demand in February 2025, while cargo capacity fell by 0.6%, reflecting broader challenges in the global air cargo sector.

Global Air Cargo Market Faces First Decline Since 2023

Key Global Trends:

• Overall air cargo demand dropped 0.1% compared to February 2024, marking the first decline since mid-2023.
• Capacity (Available Cargo Tonne-Kilometers, ACTK) fell by 0.4%, with international operations up 1.1%.
• IATA attributed the decline to leap year effects, Chinese New Year, sea lane disruptions, and a surge in e-commerce in February 2024, creating a high comparison base.

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Regional Performance: Winners & Losers

Growth in Air Cargo Demand:
Asia-Pacific: +5.1% (Strongest growth)
Latin America: +6.0%

Declining Regions:
Middle East: -11.9% (Sharpest drop)
Africa: -5.7%
North America: -0.4%
Europe: -0.1%

Despite the drop, the Trans-Pacific corridor remains the busiest trade lane, followed by growth in Intra-Asia routes. Europe-Asia and Transatlantic routes expanded, but Middle East-Asia, African connections, and select European routes saw demand weaken.

Key Market Factors Impacting Air Cargo

IATA’s Insights:

• Industrial production rose 3.2% in January 2025, the highest in two years.
• Global trade expanded by 5%.
• Jet fuel prices averaged $94.6 per barrel in February, down 2.1% from January.
• Global manufacturing PMI stood at 51.5 (indicating growth), while the new export orders PMI edged up to 49.6.
• Consumer inflation remained high in the US, Europe, and Japan, while China saw its first price decline in 11 months, raising deflation concerns.

What Lies Ahead?

While global air cargo demand weakened, some trade corridors remain strong, and Asia-Pacific continues to drive growth. However, African airlines’ performance reflects broader economic challenges, including weaker trade routes and inflation pressures.

With fuel prices dropping slightly and manufacturing indicators stabilizing, airlines and logistics firms will closely monitor market shifts in the coming months.