Fund Managers in Africa Shift Focus Amid Investment Decline

Africa is facing a significant drop in new investments due to tough market conditions and growing uncertainty among investors. As a result, fund managers are stepping back from large deals, according to a new study.

The report by the African Private Equity and Venture Capital Association (AVCA) highlights the state of private investment activity in Africa for the first half of 2024, ending on June 30. It reveals that large deals worth $100 million or more have been particularly affected by this ongoing capital crunch. Even the financial sector, which usually attracts a lot of investor interest, has seen a major downturn.

The report states, “The current tight market conditions and increased investor uncertainty continue to affect the availability of capital for fund managers focused on Africa, ultimately impacting deal volume and value in the first half of 2024.” For the second year in a row, the value of deals around the $100 million mark has decreased, with those exceeding $100 million experiencing a staggering 91% drop compared to last year.

To keep investment activity alive, fund managers are now concentrating on smaller deals. During the first half of 2024, a remarkable 88% of investment value in Africa was directed towards deals under $50 million. This is the first time since 2018 that such smaller deals have made up more than 50% of the total investment value on the continent.

African economies faced another tough period in the first half of 2024, continuing a global trend that has persisted in recent years. Despite inflation stabilizing in major economies like Kenya and South Africa, the economic growth and recovery projections for this period did not materialize.

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The private capital sector in Africa faced significant challenges, recording 182 deals with a total value of $900 million. This marks a 17% drop in the number of deals and a 66% decrease in value compared to last year.

The financial sector remains the largest area for investment in Africa, attracting 24% of deal volume and 39% of investment value. However, deal volumes in this sector fell by 4% year-on-year, while deal values dropped by 64%. This decline is largely due to a decrease in venture capital funding, which has particularly impacted the fintech industry.

Since 2023, the venture capital sector has seen a slowdown, characterized by limited capital availability and many startups shutting down. Although there is still strong investor interest in financial services, the ongoing reduction in venture capital funding has created significant challenges within the sector. This trend is not unique to Africa but reflects a global volatility in venture capital.

In this challenging investment climate, East and West Africa showed some resilience. East Africa maintained the same volume of deals (45) as in the first half of 2023, despite a continent-wide decline in deal volumes. This performance allowed East Africa and West Africa to capture the largest share of deal volumes, each region accounting for 25%. Both regions also attracted the highest share of deal values, at 30%.

While other regions faced declines, West Africa was the only one to see a slight increase in deal values, rising by 3% year-on-year. The study notes that for the third consecutive year, fund managers focused on Africa raised about $1 billion in closed funds during the first half of the year.

However, fundraising strategies have shifted, with venture capital and buyouts now making up nearly half of the fundraising efforts. Interim fundraising has struggled, securing only $300 million in commitments, a decline of 80% compared to last year.

The report highlights that the first half of 2024 was particularly difficult for first-time fund managers seeking final closes. In contrast to the trends in the first half of 2023, these managers did not achieve any final closes in 2024. With capital becoming increasingly scarce and investors exercising more caution, it remains uncertain if any first-time fund managers will close funds in the second half of 2024.

Despite the downturn in investments, the number of exits in the first half of 2024 surpassed that of the same period last year. In response to the current market conditions, fund managers focused on Africa are relying on established exit strategies to capitalize on investments that have reached maturity.